Winning is not all it's cracked up to be...

Each week, I read the news voraciously, not only seeking enlightenment but also looking for the topic that will drive that week’s post to Birth of a Notion. I try hard to keep the topic relevant, topical and timely but sometimes I feel as if everyone is addressing the same topic in their blog, article or column so I set out to seek something different.

This news of this past week was dominated by the so-called budget compromise that ensued from the bloody budget battle that took place primarily between the United States Congress and the White House although there were sporadic but murderous fire fights that took place within both the Republican and Democratic Parties. With the Democrats it was between the liberal and moderate wings of the Party and with Republicans it was between the old line conservatives and the new upstart Tea Party freshman legislators.

I did not think I could add anything to that discussion so I looked around for something else and as important as the budget battle was, I wanted something that was possibly more important. And I think I found it. The year 2010 was a year for taking the United States census and among the many types of impact a count of our nation’s population creates, there is one that seems to get lost in the fog of data, policy and law—the redistricting of the United States Congress. The drawing of electoral districts is among the least transparent processes in democratic governance. All too often, redistricting authorities maintain their power by obstructing public participation. The resulting districts embody the goals of politicians to the detriment of the representational interests of communities and the public at large.

After the tidal wave of Republican victories in last year’s mid-term elections, it appeared that the GOP was poised to make redistricting history. In theory at least, Republicans seemed armed to the teeth to engage in the decennial activity of redistricting which this time around has ignited almost unprecedented public interest, to say nothing of the possible litigation waiting in the wings.

Now that the GOP has major control over the majority of state legislatures that historically are tasked with redistricting new legislative boundaries, they will have an opportunity to influence how more than 200 congressional districts around the country will be drawn.

But wait a minute! The Democrats despite their horrific defeat at the mid-term election polls are not exactly without some power of their own. Because the Republicans control so many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, they now have to turn their attentions on to solidly-held Democratic Districts in order to expand their power and influence. That said, the 2010 census shows a demographic paradigm shift, particularly in the growth of the Hispanic population, and this time the demographic shifts tend to favor Democrats and could even cause the Republicans to retreat somewhat in their fervor to control everything.

In a sense, the Republican Party and their new Tea Party allies have themselves to blame. They have increased their majority in the House so much—particularly in swing districts—they now have the most to lose in states that are faced with eliminating congressional seats in order to be in compliance with the new districting requirements of the 2010 census. Louisiana is a prime example. Here, the state will lose a seat and the six Republicans who make up Louisiana’s delegation (there is also a lone Democrat) will begin to kill each other off as each congress person is engaged in the mad scramble to save their seat from extinction due to the new census.

In addition to Louisiana, Republicans also control the redistricting process in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas. Ohio loses two seats, Pennsylvania loses one, while Florida gains two seats and Texas will gain four new seats. In each of these states however, a mirror image of the fight in the U.S. Congress between the GOP Old Guard and the new Tea Party adherents will erupt at the state level as a fight for survival engulfs the old-line conservatives and their not-always-friendly allies, the take-no-prisoner Tea Party legislators.

One exception by the way to all this bloodletting is California where there, the ever innovative people of that state have put the task of redistricting squarely in the hands of an independent commission.

If however, you think that the new flock of tax and budget cutting Republicans will force incumbents to slink off into the darkness, think again. Legislators will do everything they can to draw districts that will help them hold onto their seat. Incumbents are developing new strategies to retain their seats such as instituting legal challenges to the entire redistricting process or as has been reported recently in the New York Times, hired consultants and lobbyists to help them keep their seats.

As always with matters like these, the courts will play an important role in determining final outcomes. Some Republicans have already promised to go to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia instead of the normal route, which has been appealing to the United States Justice Department. Republicans are avoiding this step because they feel there will be no one in Justice who has any empathy for their situation particularly since most of the appointments there come from the Obama administration. Keeping that dog from hunting however, is that historically, lower courts tend to defer to the Justice Department. Also, going to court—any court, involves expense, delays and of course there is always the chance you can lose.

Republicans however do have plenty of reasons to be happy. Due to the twin victories of a Supreme Court ruling which opened the floodgates of corporate political donations and the Federal Election Commission approving the collection of soft money for a National Democratic Redistricting Trust, the GOP now sits in the cat bird seat and with their control of the majority of state legislatures around the country, this could be an ugly fight.

Some political experts have already made the claim that political mud-slinging will be far worse this year than even last year, given what is at stake for the next ten years. Andrew Beveridge, a sociology professor at Queens College in New York City was quoted as saying, “What you are going to see is a game of musical chairs. I think it will be a big fight and it will be both state and national.”