The Unthinkable

If Republicans win one or both houses of Congress, all hell will break loose.

Most of us remember myriad hardships created in late 1995 and early 1996 when the Federal Government was shut down during the Clinton administration—and that was under a Democratic administration!

Conservative blogger Erick Erickson, who is sometimes featured on CNN, said early in September that he is “almost giddy thinking about a government shutdown next year. I cannot wait!” Also last month, Dick Morris ranted at the Americans for Prosperity conference that “There’s going to be a government shutdown, just like in ’95 and ’96 but we’re going to win this time and I’ll be fighting on your side.”

A Republican majority in both houses will also see the first attempt on their part to facilitate their long-standing threat to defund the health care law. The logical end point of that ensuing fight with President Obama will lead to a government shutdown, or at least a partial one. Right now, top conservatives are salivating at that possibility.

It is critical for all of us to take a deep breath and think about what the consequences of a government shutdown—even a limited one—would mean for the economy and more importantly, for the country.

Donna Shalala, who served as the Secretary of Health and Human Services during the last government shutdown which ran from December 16, 1995 through January 6, 1996, warns that “It was a mess frankly and devastating to the civil service.” One of Secretary Shalala’s Clinton administration cabinet colleagues, Secretary of Labor Robert Reich shared that “Almost all employees are sent home. Most have no idea when they’ll be paid again.”

And almost as manna from heaven for Republican protagonists who constantly rail against the federal government in general and federal employees specifically, a 2004 report of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) stated, “Government shutdowns have necessitated the furloughing of several hundred thousand federal employees and affect all sectors of the economy.”

Deep down, Republicans probably realize they can’t repeal the health care law, at least not in the foreseeable future, but they have pledged repeatedly that they will do all they can, in the words of House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, “ensure that a trillion dollar takeover of our health care in this county does not occur.” The overall strategy of the Republican Party will be to attack the appropriation of federal dollars, promising that if they gain control of the legislative process in this country, they will defund as Congressman Cantor states, “every bit of the regulation process.”

Even with President Obama’s veto of any attempt by Congress to repeal healthcare reform, Congress only has to target the annual appropriations legislation that funds the Departments of Labor, Education, and Health and Human Services. If Republicans fail to fully fund those departments to budget forcing the President to veto that legislation—look out—government shutdown, here we go.

The initial and the most devastating consequence of a government shutdown are furloughs, hundreds of thousands of workers sent home without compensation. For a government shutdown to happen now, it would send shock waves through an already staggering economy. Social Security payments, Medicare reimbursements and Medicaid dollars to states would cease immediately despite the fact that millions of Americans and every state government in our country depend on these services.

In the same CRS report cited above, “New patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Clinical Center; the Center for Disease Control and Prevention ceased disease surveillance (information about the spread of diseases such as AIDs and the flu were unavailable); hotline calls to NIH regarding diseases were not answered; and toxic waste clean-up work at 609 sites stopped, resulting in 2,400 Superfund workers being sent home.”

As we are all painfully aware, today’s economy is in much worse shape than it was 15 years ago. The impact of massive amounts of federal employees suddenly out of work and American beneficiaries without income, will impact us in a more devastating fashion than it did under President Clinton.

A Democratic victory on November 2nd will most assuredly cause an increase in all of the hatred, loathing and disgust that has permeated Republican rhetoric these past 23 months, not including the 2008 campaign. In those heady days that immediately followed his inauguration, President Obama was roundly criticized by primarily the Right Wing in this country for taking on too many challenges facing America at one time. Of course, no one can convince me that if he had failed to do so that the criticism would instead have been that he was not doing enough to resolve the crippling number of challenges facing America today.

And yet, in the face of tremendous opposition, this White House managed to get Congress to pass the American Recovery and Re-Investment Act (ARRA) also known as the stimulus. This was the first shot fired to jolt the economy in the short term while also facilitating the long-term reform of health care, education, energy and our financial system. We cannot, as a country, allow this momentum to be stymied by a political party whose rallying cry is “No!”

That said, America is at a critical juncture in its modern history and it is up to you and me, and all of the millions of Americans who demanded change in 2008 to stand together, brush off the negativity and even disappointment that enough has not yet been accomplished, and vote to keep both Houses of Congress Democratic else we revert back to the Republican policies of the eight years leading up to 2008 that has brought about such anger and despair today.